A multi-model ensemble to investigate uncertainty in the estimation of wave-driven longshore sediment transport patterns along a non-straight coastline

Although there have been many efforts in the literature to hindcast patterns of longshore sediment transport (LST), they mainly disregarded uncertainty issues. Forcing datasets, wave transformation methods, and LST models are among main sources estimations. The combination aforementioned makes estimation challenging for non-straight coastlines as ranges might vary from site site. In this paper, a simple ensemble modeling framework was employed investigate rate at seven sites along coastline (Gold Coast, Australia). formed by two different forcing datasets (i.e., integral parameters total energy ERA5 CAWCR), methods inclusion exclusion local wind effects), eight bulk formulae process-based models). Moreover, relative importance each source ranked using ANOVA-variance-based model. Finally, weighted mean used intra- inter-annual variability rates. results showed that range rates open coasts Gold Coast is much higher than semi-sheltered coasts. On annual scale, coasts, 40% 50% due choice while it 20%–30%. almost all sites, 30% controlled interaction models. could provide an estimate coast, addressing residual uncertainties (arising other sources, discussed end paper), future works, would help increase certainty